The Other 167 Hours

Does it help to expect the worst?

“If I expect the worst then I won’t be disappointed.” I’ve heard that theory expressed at least a hundred times. You probably have too. (By the way, do you expect to enjoy reading this article?) I’ve flirted with the theory many times myself. You too? I like to call it the Eeyore Theory.

I probably won’t get that job.

It’s just a matter of time until she breaks up with me.

I know the medical tests are going to come back positive.

I doubt that I’ll like this movie.

It seems to make sound logical sense. Right? Brace yourself. Prepare yourself. When the bad news arrives you’ll be ready. On the other hand, if it turns out to be good news then it’s icing on the cake. Surprise, it’s good news!

Some psychologists*at CUNY, Harvard, and University of Virginia decided to test this theory. As you may expect, they were primarily interested in the emotional benefits of the theory. Us too, right?

Wait a minute… Why should I have to read research on something I do? I already know if it works for me or not. Don’t I?

It is amazing the variety of things we do in our lives that are not to our benefit, and yet we do them anyway. Self-observing or knowing ourselves is not as straight forward as we would like to think it is. In fact, there are many situations where others know us better than we know ourselves. More on this in another post sometime. But, really, you should keep reading.

First, the researchers tested the theory in a very controlled lab setting. You know, blind, randomly assigned groups with all the stats. Participants took a bogus computer test that was supposed to tell them something good or bad about themselves. Some were setup to believe the result would be complimentary, others that the results would be critical of them. Yes, Virginia, some lying was involved. The participants’ mood was also tracked at various intervals.

Once those results were in, they tested the theory in a more real-world setting, monitoring the mood of college students taking exams and waiting for their grade. They statistically removed the impact of the actual exam score, and were able to look at the impact of the expectations alone. The researchers got the same results both times. And, by the way, the results were consistent when mood was measured either 2 minutes after or a day after.

Here is what they found. In the researchers’ own words,

…expectations about an event mattered until the event happened, at which time the event—and not people’s prior expectations about it—became the determinant of their affective states.

Let me unpack that a little.

They found that there is an emotional cost in expecting the worst. Your mood takes a dive even before the event happens if your expectations are negative. You get an early jump on being depressed. After the news, the people who got good news were happier than the ones who didn’t but the Eeyores didn’t feel any better or worse than those who had positive expectations but got bad news. It didn’t help them afterwards. It only made them able to start feeling bad earlier. And when they got good news, the Eeyores didn’t enjoy it any more than the others who got good news.

The theory took a hit. Expecting the worst has all cost and no benefit.

So, certainly, when some event is on the horizon, you can start feeling bad as early as you want too. Yes, the early bird does get the worm. But I hope you like worms, because it seems likely that a worm is about the only reward you get with this Eeyore Theory.

*Golub, S. A., Gilbert, D. T., & Wilson, T. D. (2009). Anticipating one’s troubles: The costs and benefits of negative expectations. Emotion, 9, 277-281.